Trump enters his second term with historically weak public support and a sharply divided reaction to his boldest foreign‑policy move so far: the U.S. raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. With a net approval of -12 points and almost identical splits on the raid itself, his “honeymoon period” is closer to a political grind than a reset.

Presidential approval ratings have long been the simplest, most powerful barometer of a president’s standing with the public, a tool first institutionalized by George Gallup in the late 1930s. They shape a president’s leverage with Congress, color media narratives, and offer early clues about midterm and future electoral prospects. For Trump’s second term, those signals are blinking caution.

A Second Term That Looks Like the First

According to the Silver Bulletin’s aggregated polling average, Trump’s current approval is 33% with 45% disapproval, for a net -12 rating as of January 9, 2026. That figure has been remarkably stable since early December, oscillating only between -13 and -11 on net. In other words, there has been no appreciable “honeymoon” bump traditionally associated with a new or returning president.

Historically, presidents often begin their terms with positive or at least neutral net approval and only gradually descend as governing challenges accumulate. Gallup’s compilation of historical approval series shows:

– Barack Obama began his presidency with high net approval before eroding amid economic and political headwinds.
– Joe Biden started with a robust positive net rating, then fell into negative territory over his term.
– Trump’s first-term inaugural approval was already historically low for a modern president, and his second-term starting point is similarly weak, placing him at the very bottom of post‑World War II presidential “honeymoon” comparisons.

This continuity underscores a striking reality: Trump’s coalition is durable but narrow. The public did not meaningfully “reconsider” him between terms; instead, he re-entered office with entrenched polarization rather than renewed goodwill.

How Approval Ratings Work — And Why Aggregates Matter

To understand what Trump’s -12 net approval means, it helps to unpack how approval ratings are measured and aggregated.

The approval question

The standard Gallup-style approval question is straightforward: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling his job?” Respondents are typically offered options like approve, disapprove, and sometimes no opinion. The approval rating is the percentage saying “approve”; disapproval is the percentage saying “disapprove.” The net approval is approval minus disapproval.

Since Gallup began presidential job approval polling in 1937, this question has become a core metric of American political life. ABC News describes it as a “basic back-of-the-envelope sense” of where the country believes presidential leadership has taken it — a rough stand‑in for whether people feel things are going well.

Who gets polled

Pollsters use scientific sampling to get a demographically representative slice of the population.

Common target groups include:

– All adults (A): Measures the nation’s broad sentiment, regardless of registration or turnout likelihood.
– Registered voters (RV): Narrowed to people on voter rolls; useful for understanding the views of the active electorate.
– Likely voters (LV): A modeled subset of registered voters deemed highly likely to vote; often used close to elections.

Typically, sample sizes range from several hundred to a few thousand respondents, contacted via live phone interviews, mixed-mode phone/online, or high-quality online panels.

Why averages beat single polls

Single polls can be off due to sampling error, methodology quirks, or random noise. That is why major outlets and analysts rely on polling averages, which collate many surveys into a single, more stable indicator of public opinion.

The Silver Bulletin model (similar in philosophy to FiveThirtyEight and Cook Political Report) weights polls by:

– Pollster reliability and transparency
– Sample size
– Recency (newer polls count more than older ones)
– Publication frequency (to avoid over-weighting prolific but mediocre pollsters)
– House effects (systematic lean toward one party or the other)

FiveThirtyEight’s methodology notes that distinct models are used for different types of polling averages, such as presidential approval versus election horse-race polls, because approval typically moves more slowly. The goal is to minimize error while still being responsive to real opinion shifts, not day-to-day noise.

This context matters: Trump’s -12 net approval is not the artifact of one or two unfavorable polls; it is the output of a methodologically rigorous aggregation across multiple high‑quality survey series.

The Venezuela Raid: A Foreign Policy Test That Split the Country

The U.S. raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is Trump’s most dramatic foreign‑policy move of the new term, and the approval numbers around it are telling.

According to the same Silver Bulletin polling aggregation:

– 33% of Americans approved of the operation.
– 34% disapproved.
– 33% responded “Don’t know.”

This near-perfect three‑way split is significant for three reasons.

1. No unifying “rally ’round the flag”

Historically, bold foreign‑policy actions — especially high‑profile military operations — can trigger a “rally ’round the flag” effect, producing short-term surges in presidential approval as citizens rally behind national leadership. George W. Bush’s approval spike after the September 11 attacks and early Afghanistan campaign is a classic example.

By contrast, the Maduro raid produced no broad consensus:

– The approve and disapprove numbers are essentially tied at one‑third each.
– The large “Don’t know” category signals uncertainty, ambivalence, or incomplete public understanding of the raid’s motivations, legality, and consequences.

In net terms, the operation is not a political asset. It did not deliver a clear popularity boost and did nothing visible to shift Trump’s already negative overall approval.

2. Polarization extends to foreign policy

Foreign policy has historically been one of the few areas where presidents could sometimes reach beyond partisan divides, appealing to a sense of national unity. The Venezuela raid numbers suggest that this space has shrunk dramatically.

When an action as momentous as capturing a foreign head of state yields almost no national consensus, it underscores how deeply partisan lenses now structure nearly all political judgments, including those about national security.

3. High uncertainty amplifies narrative battles

With one-third of Americans unsure how they feel, elite cues — from party leaders, media outlets, and opinion-makers — will heavily influence how public opinion evolves.

The White House, Congress, and media ecosystems are now engaged in a framing contest:

– Supporters cast the raid as decisive leadership, a blow against dictatorship, or a necessary step to restore democracy in Venezuela.
– Critics frame it as reckless, unlawful, destabilizing, or an overreach of executive power.

In a landscape where overall approval is already low and polarized, this contest is unlikely to produce a major net approval gain for Trump. Instead, it risks reinforcing existing divisions: supporters become more enthusiastic, critics more alarmed, and the conflicted middle remains uncertain.

Issue-Specific Views: Strength on Immigration, Weakness on Unity

Broad job approval captures an overall verdict, but issue-specific ratings reveal what the public believes a president is good or bad at. Here, Trump’s profile is sharply asymmetrical.

Surveys show that Americans are:

– Most optimistic about Trump’s ability to control immigration.
– Least confident in his ability to heal political divisions.

This pattern aligns with his political brand:

– On immigration, he has a clear, hard‑line identity that his supporters see as resolve and his critics see as hostility. Support within his base on this issue can help shore up approval among core constituencies, even when overall national numbers are negative.
– On national unity and bipartisanship, Trump’s polarizing rhetoric and combative governing style have generated deep skepticism. Many Americans, including some who may favor his policies, doubt his capacity or willingness to lower the temperature of U.S. politics.

For legislative and strategic purposes, this means Trump is more likely to:

– Lean into immigration and border control politics to rally his supporters, framing them as central mandates of his renewed presidency.
– Accept or even exploit division, rather than attempting consensus-building, because public expectations for him to unify the country are already minimal.

Governing With Low Political Capital

Presidential approval is more than a scoreboard; it is a form of political capital — the perceived strength and legitimacy that influences how other actors behave. At -12 net approval, Trump enters his second term in a constrained bargaining position.

Relations with Congress

Members of Congress, especially those from swing or opposition districts, watch presidential approval closely.

– A popular president can pressure legislators by mobilizing public opinion and threatening electoral backlash.
– An unpopular president is less feared and sometimes treated as a liability.

With Trump stuck in negative territory and no honeymoon bump, congressional Republicans must calculate whether aligning with the White House helps them with their own electorates, while Democrats have little incentive to compromise unless public opinion forces their hand.

Key implications:

– Major, controversial legislative initiatives — especially those requiring bipartisan support — become harder to pass.
– Trump may rely more heavily on executive actions, regulatory maneuvers, and foreign policy, where he has more unilateral authority, to pursue his agenda.
– Intra‑party tensions may surface if Republican lawmakers in competitive districts perceive Trump as a drag rather than an asset.

Media narratives and public mood

Media organizations routinely frame the presidency through the lens of approval numbers. Sustained low approval creates a narrative of embattlement:

– Every crisis, scandal, or policy setback is interpreted against the backdrop of weak support.
– Even successes can be discounted if they fail to move the approval needle.

For Trump, the Maduro raid’s flat public response reinforces a storyline of limited persuasive reach: bold moves, but few minds changed.

Electoral consequences

Historically, presidential approval is correlated with:

– Midterm outcomes: Presidents with low approval often see their parties suffer losses in Congress.
– Reelection or successor performance: A deeply unpopular president can weigh down his party’s nominee, while a popular one can boost them.

Because Trump is already in his second term (in this scenario), the immediate stakes are:

– Down-ballot Republicans facing potential headwinds if the national environment stays sour.
– The shape of party realignment, as Republicans decide whether to double down on Trumpism or position for a post‑Trump era in the face of sustained national disapproval.

Limits and Strengths of Approval as a Metric

Although widely used, presidential approval ratings are not infallible or all-encompassing.

Strengths

– Historical continuity: Consistent questions over decades allow comparisons across presidencies.
– Simplicity: A single number that captures broad sentiment and is easy for the public and elites to interpret.
– Predictive value: While not perfect, approval correlates with legislative success and electoral performance.

Limitations

– Noise in single polls: Outliers can mislead if taken in isolation, underscoring the need for weighted averages.
– Question wording and mode effects: Slight differences in phrasing or methodology can affect results, though aggregation mitigates much of this.
– Lack of granularity: A 33% approval rating does not reveal *why* people support or oppose the president, or how intensely.
– Unscientific measures: Online opt‑in polls or self-selected surveys often produce distorted numbers and should not be conflated with professional polling.

Some emerging research explores social media sentiment analysis as an adjunct to traditional approval polling, attempting to capture real‑time mood from platforms like Twitter. However, such methods face challenges of representativeness, bot activity, and interpretive bias, which is why scientific polling remains the gold standard.

What Trump’s Numbers Signal About the Road Ahead

Taken together, the current data paint a picture of a president who:

– Begins his second term with historically low and deeply entrenched approval, echoing his first-term trajectory rather than resetting it.
– Faces a public almost perfectly split on a major foreign‑policy gamble, with an unusually large share still undecided.
– Retains issue-specific strengths on immigration but suffers a pronounced deficit in perceived ability to unify the country.
– Must govern with limited political capital, relying more on his core base and institutional powers than on broad public backing.

Unless there is a substantial shift in objective conditions — economic performance, foreign crises, domestic policy breakthroughs — or in Trump’s governing style, the approval trajectory suggested by early second-term data implies continued polarization rather than reconciliation. For allies, the task is to maximize policy wins within that reality; for opponents, to leverage low approval without overreading it as a guarantee of future electoral success.

In an era where nearly every political development is filtered through partisan identity, presidential approval is less a unifying civic verdict than a running measure of national division. Trump’s -12 net rating, and the fractured response to the Venezuela raid, are not just numbers; they are a snapshot of a republic where consensus is rare, skepticism is high, and even the most dramatic actions struggle to break through hardened lines of belief.

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